Rhino's Ramblings - You Can't Do That

By Robert Thomas - Opinion/Commentary

It came as a shock to a couple of our readers who wrote and said you guys must be crazy for stepping out of covering the highs and lows of this October’s provincial election.

Let me tell you it is a decision I personally did not take lightly but it is something I mulled over for a long time but after giving it a good thought decided it is the best route to follow and there are few good reasons why I think it is not this publication’s role to have much to do with who ultimately leads this province and it all has to deal with one word.

And that one word is timing.

Timing as in when the election is supposed to be taking place according to existing fixed election date legislation.

As it stands right now the provincial election is set for Monday October 26, 2020 according to ammendments made to the Legislative Assembly Act 2007.

Under terms of those ammendments "the first general election after the coming into force of this subsection must be held on Monday, October 26, 2020". With that said though the act does have two exemptions where the date can be moved.

The first exemption is if the Saskatchewan election period happens to overlap a federal election period.

I know some are going to say that is highly unlikely but with a minority Liberal government in Ottawa and the Conservatives seeing red in their eyes you never know. You have already seen the Conservatives float the spectre of a Non Confidence Vote in the House so you never know what might happen if all of a sudden the federal NDP and Bloc Quebecois see it in their best interests to vote against the government.

With the Conservatives set to chose a new leader on June 27th in Toronto I am guessing whomever wins the leadership race might look at the situation and say lets force an election.

If the Liberals, and most expecially Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continue to bobble the blockade issue you may well see the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois seeing an opportunity to regain some of their losses and vote with the Conservatives and bring down the federal government.

Now I am going to be the first to admit this is an unlikely scenario but given some of the things which have happened in politics you never know.

If the unlikely scenario were to occur where there was a federal vote this October or early November all bets will be off and then the provincial election vote is postponed until the first Monday of the following April; or April 5, 2021.

Now here is where it all gets a little bit hairy and that is if the Premier Moe so chooses the legislation allows him to go to Lieutenant Governor Russell Miratsy and ask to dissolve the Legislature and drop the election writ.

It is what the Premier has been toying with over the past 10 days or so saying he is not going to call an election and then saying he still reserves the right to call an early one as it is allowed under the rules. It is something the right now ill-prepared NDP is not looking forward to as they have not nominated all of their candidates yet and were betting on using the final sitting of the Legislature to show the people of Saskatchewan they are an alternative to the SaskParty government.

With the Premier now topping the polls as the most popular in the polls and some very heavy economic waves about to hit the province it may well be in the SaskParty’s best interests to go now.

Those economic waves include the Saudis set to engage in one of the deepest price cuts to crude oil at the same time setting to ramp up their production to record levels in order to get everyone else in line when it comes to production. This is a nightmare to a province like Saskatchewan where there has already been a major shift in revenue collection away from commodities and now to be hit with even more.

But the biggest issue out there right now has to do with the weather and the major economic impact a third dry year will undoubtedly have on most local economies including even Moose Jaw’s. If there is a distant weather prediction or even some thoughts it is going to be another dry year it may well be in the SaskParty’s best interest to go to the polls now right after they put out a good news budget.

By waiting until the legislated date the SaskParty sails into the unknown waters of economic and weather uncertainty whereas going to the polls now or in the Spring negates that.

Now as far as it goes for the MJ Independent and a lot of the province’s media it is by far better to have a Spring election and this is where the timing all comes into play. And that timing is the municipal and school board elections which occur November 9th. That is just two weeks (give or take) from when the province holds its vote.

It makes for a very tough time for the media, especially the local community newspapers, who often have just a single reporter (if one at all) to get out there and cover the news and most of all have the space to put it in their publications with the many other things going on in their communities. You have to remember most of the local community newspapers publish weekly on Tuesdays through Thurdsays with a deadline often the previous Friday, the few which still exist, do not have a large internet presence as it is too expensive and does not fit their marketing model.

The publication dates of weeklies are set by the two or three presses they use to print their papers which means much of the local media will be reporting the provincial election campaigns as well as the provincial results right on top of the municipal and school board elections.

It is not a very great situation - for community media or the voters.

In my, albeit limited discussions, with some of the weeklies out there it is not an ideal situation. They are left with the question do they cover the provincial or do they cover the local elections?

I spoke to people who expressed an interest in writing some election stuff and given some of the things the political partisans have personally called me from both the left and the right it is not in their best interests to throw them into the wolves den. They agreed with me.

For us at MJ Independent it means being up front and telling it quite truthfully if the provincial and municipal elections are held as schedued we will be likley foregoing most provincial coverage and focus on the local elections.

Given the usual 20 plus people who put their names forward to run for Council to try to make Moose Jaw a better place we believe it is the right choice and we are of the thought most community media in the province is likely to follow suit.