Percentage Of Mortgages In Arrears Is Highest In Saskatchewan
If you thought the number of residential mortgages in arrears - three months or more - was higher than normal in Saskatchewan you would be correct.
In figures provided by the Canadian Bankers Association on June 30, 2019 Saskatchewan had 1,118 residential mortgages or .86 percent of 130,106 total mortgages in the province.
This compares to Alberta where 2,878 or .5 of a percent of 580,502 total mortgages are in arrears of three months or more.
The Canadian percentage average of mortgages in arrears is .23 percent where 11,119 out of a national total 7,773,633 mortgages are in arrears over three months.
By comparison Ontario - where percentage-wise the lowest number of mortgages in arrears three months or longer exist in Canada - has 1,797 residential mortgages three months or more in arrears or .05 percent of 2,016,534 total residential mortgages.
Ontario has just over 15 times the number of residential mortgages Saskatchewan has but Ontario just over 1.5 times the number of residential mortgages in three months of arrears or more as of June 30, 2019.
See the chart below.
Courtesy Canadian Bankers Association
A look at the number of residential mortgages in Saskatchewan - both percentage-wise and raw numbers - has been growing alongside the drop in commodity prices especially oil and potash.
In April 2014 the number of residential mortgages in arrears of three months or more in Saskatchewan was 371 or .30 per of a total 122,967 residential mortgages.
By April 2015 the number had grown to 504 residential mortgages in arrears of three months or more in Saskatchewan translating into .40 of the total 125,596 residential mortgages.
In April 2016 the number was 736 residential mortgages in arrears of three months or more in Saskatchewan or .58 percent of the total 127,888 residential mortgages in the province.
The increase of residential mortgages in arrears of three months or more continued in April 2017 when 900 homeowners or .69 percent of 129,498 residential mortgages had serious arrears
In April 2018 the number of residential mortgages in arrears of three months or more had grown to 1021 or .79 percent of the 130,365 residential mortgages mortgages in Saskatchewan.
Raw Data Showing Steady Climb in the number of residential mortgages with arrears three months or longer in Saskatchewan
At the same time the number of mortgages in serious arrears was growing the price of crude oil, West Texas Intermediate, fell from $93.17 per barrel in January 2014 to a year low of $53.45 per barrel on December 31, 2014.
Despite spiking at $107.95 per barrel in 2014 crude oil prices have never recovered to anywhere near this level over the period. Energy companies laid of employees many of them who live in Saskatchewan.
See chart below.
Chart Showing West Texas Crude Prices 2014 - 2019
Prices in potash also fell during this time period and were highly volatile following the breakup of the Belarus Potash Cartel - at the time the most powerful potash cartel in the world - when Uralkali pulled out unannounced in mid 2013. Sporadic layoffs in the formerly stable potash industry resulted.
Although there is no absolute tie-in to the number and percentage-wise number of residential mortgages in arrears of three months or more in Saskatchewan - as Moose Jaw numbers are not statistically broken out - the number of property tax arrears owed to the City of Moose Jaw grew. See chart below.
Source - City Of Moose Jaw Quarterly Report