Rhino's Ramblings - 2022 What A Bummer, 2023 Might Be The Toughest Part Of The Rump

By Robert Thomas Opinion/Commentary

As I write this we are on the verge of heading into 2023 and what I’m sorry to say looks like a challenging year ahead.

We have already gone through 2022 - which was suppose to have been the year of recovery after the COVID - 19 pandemic - which wasn’t the best year economically.

For most of our readers the greatest concern in 2022 can be described in a few short words “the struggle just to put food on their tables.”

It’s not just the cost of food which has hit us hard but economically it’s been the perfect storm.

Gas, electricity, water and heating have taken jumps in prices.

The three basics we see as essential for life - food, shelter and clothing - are now way up.

For far too many of our readers locally the real challenge we have heard over and over again has been being able to afford food as prices spiked.

Or perhaps I should say continue to spike.

Propagandists will tell you it’s all because of the war in Ukraine but that’s far too simplistic.

I’m sort of doubting the ridiculous price we saw for lettuce had much, if anything, to do with the price we saw had anything to do with Ukraine's lettuce crops.

Bugs, viruses and weather have nothing to do with that war.

In fact if you really want to look at it lettuce is not much of a staple there than it is here.

There is a multitude of reasons for the rapid rise in food prices and in many ways it is all about too many mouths world-wide chasing too little food.

It is also about weather conditions and the impact that has had on food supply.

Then there is, believe it or not, just too much money and credit out there that is driving food inflation.

As people in developing and poorer countries gain wealth their ability to buy food increases. It increases demand and in turn hits the Moose Jaw consumer.

Am I saying that is a bad thing? No.

But remember every Saskatchewan sourced roast in a stewpot abroad creates demand raising prices and costs here.

Money that farmers and ranchers are not seeing flowing into their pockets.

Costs we are seeing ever increasingly in our daily lives.

No ending the war in Ukraine is not going to end worldwide demand for food and return our food prices to more affordable 1970's levels.

Always remember there is a lot of spin and horse puckey going on about the war - or any war for that matter.

Don’t believe propagandists on both sides who try to insert or reinvent the war into every spin of the news cycle or major event.

This is a war where both sides might say they are willing to negotiate it is not going to happen any time soon because both sides think they can militarily win.

But enough about the geo-politicalical propaganda being circulated out there.

The real reasons for inflation can be summed up to one thing too much demand (money) chasing the same thing.

We are not just seeing it in the local food market.

We are also seeing it in the local marketplace for vehicles.

At first there was the COVID shortage as semiconductors for new cars were hard to source because of COVID.

No new cars meant very few used cars entering the market causing used car prices to spike everywhere.

Saskatchewan saw a 20 percent drop in new car sales in 2021 compared to pre-COVID days.

Then as new cars became available inflation, rising interest and other costs drove buyers away.

Year over year from 2021 to 2022 there was a three percent decrease - about 100 units - province-wide.

And remember this year the province led the way percentage-wise country-wide in new vehicle sales.

Those lack of quality trade-ins has led to people keeping their used cars longer and the resultant higher used vehicle costs.

With higher interest, tighter credit and recession looming in 2023 it is highly unlikely we are going to see a major drop in used car prices.

The winter beaters rule again.

I realize that this column might seem gloomy but I’m guessing in the next little while the economy is set to become the number one topic out there.

The mainstream media is in my best guess going to be giving you tips on how to stretch your finances.

Finances that to beat inflation the Government of Canada is going to tell you need to contract and quickly.

I can tell you from the event organizers I spoke to in 2022 the higher cost of fuel was on average having a 10 - 25 percent impact on their events.

Participants, sellers and exhibitors were cutting back often not just in Moose Jaw but everywhere.

It wasn't a guess on organizer's part but what they had been hearing.

Fuel prices are down at the present time but set to climb.

There is a much needed Christmas break.

Here is the big thing here.

If the predictions come true and Canada - or most of the world - does hit a recession then what can we expect here locally?

Will we be in an economic bubble due to the predicted demand for our commodities?

If so how far will that bubble extend?

If the recession comes and there is a drop in the Canadian economy what happens to tourism this year?

Will we be in staycation land or will people still travel?

Will there be positives here as housing prices reset making entry into the marketplace more affordable?

But with a reset in housing what about those already in homes? What sort of impact are they in for?

Will they need to scramble to find thousands to fill in financial holes in valuation versus what’s owing on the mortgage?

Will rising interest rates hammer the many house poor?

And what about food prices will the predictions of major increases become a reality?

Are we looking at a predicted five to seven percent increase in 2023? If so how is that going to hammer the working poor?

That’s a predicted $1,065 more for food for a family of four in 2023. Or $500 for a couple.

There has got to be something give to make up for it.

Sorry for my not sugar coating it but sadly its the predicted reality.

All we can really promise you our readers to keep asking questions about your tax dollars and how they are spent no matter how many people we might make feel uncomfortable by asking them.

At the present time - with that said prepare for 2023 that so far is shaping up to look like a year of economic uncertainty and questions.