Rhino's Ramblings - Is A Win Really A Win In The Long Run

By Robert Thomas - Opinion/Commentary

To the overpowering bass of the AC/DC classic “Highway To Hell” I walked into Dooly’s Pool Hall just after 7 pm earlier this evening. As the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) faithful in Moose Jaw gathered to watch the election results come in.

The big question on everyone’s minds - as they drank everything from white wine, cocktails and Coronas - was could Chey Craik take the riding away from the Conservatives - something the political pundits and pollsters said was impossible.

On a night the PPC faithful had hoped for to be a breakthrough it was not to be.

From the initial poll results to the bitter end the Conservative candidate and odds on favourite Fraser Tolmie led the pack. Starting out with 52 percent of the vote the former mayor of Moose Jaw never looked back.

A win is a win is a win is what the Conservative Party faithful are saying after what they consider their convincing win.

As I write this opinion column the results are 64.3 percent in favour of the Conservatives with 54.73 percent of the polls reporting. Barring some major reversal in the next couple of hours Moose Jaw’s former mayor will have ended up between eight and 10 percent less support than the 72 percent the well-liked Tom Lukiwski garnered in 2019. The same amount of growth seen in the Craik or PPC campaign.

But really when you look at it all was it really the victory the Conservatives are claiming it to be? Or is it really just a temporary one - at least on Mr Tolmie’s part?

To answer this question I am going to take this column back to my cub days of reporting, from well over 30 years ago, when I worked at the weekly newspaper - The Rosetown Eagle.

As an aside Judy Ritz - as in Gerry Ritz’s wife - was one of my bosses. A fine and wonderful lady who cares for others. And yes I use to hear all of Gerry Ritz’s funny stories about being a contractor. But enough about what happened at the Rosetown Eagle from back in those days.

Now I know people are going to say or probably laugh but working at that small weekly really gave me access to some of the biggest players in Canadian politics. Access I likely will never have again.

You name I had the opportunity to interview them while I worked at the Eagle - Paul Martin, John Turner, Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, Clifford Lincoln, Bill McKnight the local MP, Elwin Hermanson (who wanted Mr McKnight’s job) and of course Preston Manning in the infancy of the Reform Party was a regular (as his father Ernst Manning actually farmed just south of town) and Rosetown was a must stop.

Preston would even personally give me a Reform Party of Canada t-shirt (that is me in the photo from 30 years) that I used on my run to start up the ill-fated Reformed Rhino Party of Canada - something the Conservatives and Liberals had shut down.

Thinking back to those days I still say Preston stole my combine joke from when I worked in Rosetown.

So you know the joke was “How many politicians can you run through a combine? It all depends how greasy they are.”

No I wasn’t a Reformer that is unless you voted for the Reformed Rhinoceros Party.

Me typing a news release for the Reformed Rhino Party of Canada in a t-shirt I personally received from Preston Manning - file photo from so long ago

Now here is the story I am going to tell you about the great election when Preston Manning, who could have gotten elected in another Alberta riding, took on Joe Clark in 1988 and came in second.

I remember asking Preston afterwards why he would run against the former Red Tory Prime Minister and he told me “you take one for the team. Running there insured Reform received plenty of media coverage and we will win the next time.”

I also remember asking Bill McKnight at the Rosetown Legion Hall celebration about a place for the Reformers or the rebels if you like the next go around. McKnight, who was part of the Mulroney majority sweep, outright rejected any type of approach of bringing the Reformers back into the political fold.

The response I received was let us just say not in the least flattering especially about the upstart and challenger local rancher Elwin Hermanson.

Hermanson was a regular to my desk preaching the virtues of Reform and how the Progressive Conservative Party was not representing the West, was not representing the people and there needed to be change.

In that election Elwin Hermanson finished dead last but in the next election the political upstart who swung a big stick someplace out on his range would soundly defeat the Tory - who replaced Bill McKnight - and became the MP.

It was the start of the landslide that would eventually end up in the Progressive Conservative’s demise. The Party of Sir John A and the Red Tories were swept aside. More or less into the dustbin of political history.

Chey Craik was philosophical about the loss on Monday evening saying he will be back for a third run - MJ Independent photo

Remember this is a political column and as such it is my opinion but I see many similarities tonight that I saw so long ago in Rosetown.

What you have is an MP that in many ways is already in water over his head.

There are no moves, nor likely to be any in my opinion, to bring back the Conservative faithful who fled to the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) or the Maverick Party.

It is an attitude that the PPC and Mavericks are just flashes in the pan and really people who will never have a say anyhow. They are political movements that the West has seen so often in its history they are just too many of them to list - the Progressives, Western Canadian Concept, United Farmers of Alberta the list goes on and on….

It is an attitude the Progressive Conservatives had over 30 years ago, an attitude which lead to their ultimate demise.

It is an attitude in my opinion will lead to tonight’s winner being a short term MP as a Liberal minority government will mean there will be another trip to the polls within 18 - 24 months. The loss of voters to the upstarts - especially to Craik who has vowed to be back for the next election - is likely to have the Conservative Party bean counters looking at can Tolmie regain the loss or should they go with someone else?

Now I am certain there are those who will tell you that the PPC is just a bunch upstarts and that the new Conservative MP Fraser Tolmie is rock solid with the Party. But is that true?

In documents provided to MJ Independent (see one pictured below) I personally do not believe this to be true.

In my opinion there is a lot of political baggage out there - especially within the Conservative Party riding association - that Mr Tolmie must try to iron out. Baggage that is sort of lumpy right now and there may not be a large enough rug out there to hide it under.

How can I say this well I look at the local Conservative riding’s internal documents and what they at one time thought about Mr Tolmie.

The documents are the minutes of the Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan Conservative Riding Association from Tuesday June 28, 2016 and the resolution of Fraser Tolmie’s membership in the Conservative Party of Canada.

At that time the documents indicate the local Conservative riding association requested Mr Tolmie be removed from the Conservative Party for “his public threats” and the request was granted by the Conservative Party national headquarters.

Something which never came out during the election campaign.

Now that brings us up to today and the emergence of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) and their effect upon the Moose Jaw - Lake Centre - Lanigan riding.

It is really the reason why I have camped out at the PPC results party all evening.

No, I am not taking sides but I am actually looking at the interactions and the moods I am seeing in the pool hall where the event is being held. I am looking does this group really believe in a next time?

Do they have the same feel and vibe I got from Elwin Hermanson the many times we interacted in my Rosetown Eagle days?

The short answer to that is yes and it is where the seed is growing to what in my opinion I believe is the potential germination of a one term MP Fraser Tolmie.

The problem with all of this for the Conservatives here locally is they have to heal their internal wounds quickly as within 18 - 24 months we will in all likelihoods be heading to the polls once again.

In the meantime, in my opinion, Mr Tolmie is going to have to deliver for this riding or risk the tripling Mr Craik accomplished tonight to grow once again three-fold and the potential of a PPC win.

This in my opinion is not good news for the Conservative Party.

Taking in the fact Chey Craik is coming back for a third run I believe unless there are major changes and Mr Tolmie can turn the Party’s fortunes around he will be replaced if it looks like the PPC are going to win the Conservative island that is Moose Jaw - Lake Centre - Lanigan.

The Conservative Party in my opinion cannot allow the continued erosion of votes in a riding which should be an impregnable fortress for them.

Certainly there are a lot of things which can transpire in the next 18 - 24 months which can improve Mr Tolmie’s chances of being the Conservative’s choice the next go around and a chance at the much coveted Prestige, Pension and Esteem being re-elected would bring. But there are a lot of questions to be answered over the next couple of years.

The problem for the new MP is how does he close the gap and bring back voters - and perhaps even some of the key riding Conservatives - back to the fold?

I have seen it happen up close and first hand in my reporting career and in my opinion potentially possible as the - love him or hate him - Fraser Tolmie tries to subjugate the local Conservative flock.