Rhino's Ramblings - Panic And Indecision
Robert Thomas - Opinion/Commentary
Sievierodonetsk, Ukraine
The past week was a rollercoaster of emotions .as the Russian invasion that was suppose to - according to more than few analysts - didn’t happen.
In response to the predictions of a Wednesday invasion by American analysts Ukraine defiantly held a national Day of Unity which failed to capture the minds of its people.
Day of Unity events, such as the march in Odessa, were held throughout Ukraine on Wednesday
The Russian government announced the start of the withdrawal of troops - that looks like it did not happen - but more troops moved ominously closer to the Ukrainian border.
There were large scale cyberattacks by unknown sources, likely Russia according to Ukrainian authorities, that targeted ATMs. Something not good in a country where digital resources abound here.
There was shelling - a seemingly intentional action to provoke Russia to launch a further incursion into Ukraine - with both sides pointing the finger of responsibility at the other. Leaving many war weary to shake their heads here.
Mortar shrapnel damage on an apartment building. No idea when and who fired it
And finally the self declared Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) announced an evacuation of civilians to the Rostov region of Russia - an ominous sign - except for all fit men from 18 - 55. Just the right age for going to war.
Yes there is mobilization going on in the DPR and LPR. But here is the thing it did not just start mobilization in the two breakaway republics was initiated well over a week ago.
At that time the DPR and LPR had already forbade men between 18 - 55 leaving the cities of Luhansk\Lugansk and Donetsk.
So how do I know this?
Well I have someone who listens to the commercial radio in those two self declared republics and then sends me what is announced publicly in what are usually very tight lipped and controlled news sources over there.
It is all accessible information publicly if you just know how to access it.
Other sources have also told me that there was local mobilization going on.
I realize it sounds a little bit strange to you, but a lot of things in this war that has been going on now for eight years for people in Canada really don’t make a lot of sense either.
Shell or mortar hit adjacent apartment block. No idea when and who fired it
There might be war, or rather what was really a static trench or frozen conflict, with both sides sitting in trenches taking the occasional pot shot at each other.
The best way to describe what has been going on for the last eight years would be the Phony War or SitzKrieg which proceed the Nazis attack on France and the Low Countries in 1939 - 1940.
There even was a system along the front lines where ordinary citizens could purchase passes - actually electronic fobs - that allowed them to walk in a certain area and pass through “immigration” on both sides of the de facto border.
Sound strange to you?
Well it went even further than that with the Ukrainian government not allowing pensions to be paid to people on the other side. But that is not the bizarre point of it.
Russia started paying the pensions of the large numbers of pensioners in the LPR and DPR and in response pensioners would collect a pension from Russia and then monthly cross the border, with an electronic pass, and collect a pension from the Ukrainian government.
Perhaps the largest double dipping exercise around - unless you take a good look at many of the politicians in the world.
With that said there has been a lot of shelling going on with both sides pointing fingers at each other as to who is doing it.
From the Russian backed LPR and DPR it is Ukraine that is firing. Whereas the Ukrainian side the shelling is being conducted as a “false flag” operation to have a major incident occur thereby allowing Russia to have a moral justification to attack in order to protect the citizens of the two self declared republics from genocide.
There is plenty more going on of claim and counterclaim that it is getting fairly confusing to feel out what is the truth and what is propaganda or lies if you like from both sides.
And believe me they are going on as both Ukraine and Russia have their various media who work for pro this and pro that news sources - biased towards one side or the other if you really want to know the honest to goodness truth.
Well this week I can honestly tell you what has been going on finally touched myself personally as a friend and fellow independent journalist - bravely working surreptitiously for years in one of the self declared republics - is now starting to panic at the recent turn of events.
Quite frankly they are trapped and for the first time - panicking.
It has started to get stressful for me as I read an email posted to an account registered and safely on a server back home.
Windows of apartment block’s windows blown out from the concussion of shelling. No idea when and who fired it
People need to remember a very fundamental thing when it comes to the world events going on here. Neither side is a homogeneous mass of people. There are a variety of opinions to be found out there. You don’t need to be from “the West” to have your own opinion.
If you believe that you have fallen far, far too much for political propaganda rooted far back in history and in this case Cold War memories.
The real difference between us and them if you want to be honest is in democracies like ours we are free to say what we want at the same time we have the right to not listen to it.
In an autocratic regime you can still think what you want but you have to worry what you say as there are consequences for it. In an autocratic society the authorities and ordinary people have the authority to listen and turn you in.
Well this week has found my independent journalist friend stranded and without finds to exit as the local government in charge there is evacuating the areas under the areas they control.
Nobody, if they can get out, wants to stay behind as it has the feeling for them is very soon major war is set to kick off.
What was sent to me was disheartening. Jobs done for others not paid for and no way of getting out Luhansk and to Ukraine as busses are apparently being commandeered to take those who are allowed to go to Saratov (Oblast) province to what are suppose to be available shelters.
The threat of war seems to be looming for most commentators and journalists it seems, but that did not disrupt their plans to hit the restaurants/bars and the symphony in Kyiv this Friday night.
For others like my friend yesterday and today are a veritable nightmare as attempts are being made to head to Ukraine. With no money and very little success because of it.
For my independent journalist friend it is a time where worry has sadly turned into panic in their emails. Panic for me I find shocking as well as disheartening to say the least.
There is no way to Ukraine and there is not enough money to get to relatives in Moscow (original excerpt below).
Excerpt from email sent to my Canadian account
“I have a cousin in Moscow but I can't get through to her now there is no connection and if I honestly then I will not have enough money that I have because I spent some money on treatment and what I tried to earn at home No one paid anything via the Internet,” the email read.
The email went on further to describe what was going through that individual’s mind.
Email excerpt
“I try to keep calm as much as possible but my hands are cowardly my heart jumps out of my chest I just don't know if honestly what to do,” the email continued (see original excerpt above.)
This is what the prospects of real war does when it physically effects you and is literally right in your backyard.
A backyard that starting today all males between the ages of 18 - 55 in the DPR were required today by law to report for conscription and mobilization.
If anyone wanted to not fight and evade entering the armed forces of the LPR and DPR the chances of doing so are now greatly reduced to likely almost zero.
It is why well over a week ago all males 18 - 55 were not allowed to leave the city of Luhansk according to the transcript of their public radio broadcast I received.
At the present time mobile phones are inoperable in the LPR. Communication is cut not just externally but internally as well.
If Russia does chose to widen what at one time described as an anti-terrorist operation - most likely to get International Monetary Funds (IMF) - the war I cannot but think what the feeling will be like as panic and fear grasp the nation.
I have already seen signs of it as there are more than a few trying to sell their apartments for a pittance of what they are worth just to flee the country. I saw it in Odessa where the price of apartments is dropping as the supply for sale grows.
This the panic President Volodymyr Zelensky has been trying to calm.
Life away from the front is calm and peaceful as life goes no and certainly people are worried about it but life continues. People are still going on with their ordinary lives.
With that said will Russia or rather President Vladimir Putin sends in the troops? And is this country really ready for it?
Robert Thomas is the Acting Editor of MJ Independent.
He is presently on a long duration stay in Ukraine as rumours of a major incursion by Russia continue to grip that country.
As an FYI MJ Independen⁹t is still being produced.